Monday, February 07, 2005

Why I am an Inept Political Analyst

Note: This post was touched off by a post on Gary's LiveJournal last week - I'm trying to hash out those thoughts more completely.


Gary asked us if we thought the left (or just normal conservatives) can figure out how to compete with the radical right "NeoConservative" movement that appears to be stonger-than-ever after the November elections, or "is it just a matter of waiting until it burns itself out?"

I like thinking about politics and on occasion I suffer under the illusion that my thoughts on this subject matter in some small way, so I spent a few moments pondering this question and came to a most surprising answer:

I have no idea. Not a blessed clue. And I'm usually willing to conjecture on anything.

But this one has me stumped, because it hangs on what large groups of people will believe, and that's what I'm confused about. No matter what the political slant, I hear things being said that leave me completely perplexed. Here's what makes me think I'm totally unqualified to issue future predictions:

  • My fellow Americans just re-elected an administration that was the source of reversals and broken promises even before 9/11, and then became even more twisted -- behaving in a manner that either looks grossly inept, or criminally deceptive.

  • The biggest problem facing the American people right now is that Social Security, allegedly, will run out of money in 40some years. A plan that funnels money OUT of the system will solve the problem. (scratches his head). I'd love to get a plan like that for my student loans. Employment, health care, education, hunger, poverty, who cares.

  • George Bush claims a "mandate" after winning by some 60,000 Ohioans. A claim which I've seen repeated in the press (wish I could remember where). Amazing. People seem to buy it, even democrats. Doesn't this bother anyone?

  • The figures that I've seen on people opposing gay marriage - healthy majorities, all of them. Huh? I completely fail to understand how someone else's marriage, gay or otherwise, has any impact whatsoever on MY marriage. All of the arguments that I've heard against the idea are either ridiculous (the slippery slope artuments about Gay marriage leading to marrying trees and rocks), or entirely motivated by religion-based bigotry. Whatever the reasoning, a big, big chunk of the American People are buying this argument

  • What passes for political speech in this country is not really discussion of the issues and searching for solutions, but sloganeering and banter about issues that really matter. Both Conservatives and Liberals speak past one another, sniping each other, rather than trying to the issues.

  • Maybe the most compelling argument that I'm a complete fool is the fact that I'm annoyed by the people I'm supposed to agree with:
    • "Not One Damn Dime Day" was a great indicator of how infantile and lazy the left can be. People "protested" by staying home and doing nothing. Maybe this goes a long way towards explaining all of the stuff above. There's no positive vision, there's nothing being advocated, just an exhortation to damage companies that had nothing to do with the decision to go to war, in order to "send a message" to the leaders of our country. You wanna send a message? Buy a stamp and use it. I feel weird pointing this out -- if you're doing nothing, you're actually... doing nothing.

      It seems that the "protest" culture of the left is good at one thing - digging their heels in and saying what they're against. You don't win voters or politicians over with that kind of stuff. The left needs to put forth a positive vision of life: compassion, energized communities, decentralized economies, economic justice... These fantastic ideas are out there, but the message is hidden by sarcasm, anger and bitterness. Nobody wants to listen to a mob of angry protesters. I know why they're angry, and it's understandable, but the current strategy is losing the battle for the American people's minds.

    • That being said, I'm amazed by talk about pulling out of Iraq. Like it or not, those of us who hated the idea of the war failed to stop it. Now we've destroyed the country, and it's time to fix it before we leave. It's really pretty simple -- we are obligated to leave them with as much or more stability than they had when we bombed the stuffing out of them. Is this too simplistic? We blew it up, we have to help fix it.



The long and the short of it is that I'm completely out of step with many of my American contemporaries, and it doesn't seem to divide like it used to, on clean ideological lines. And this could mean many things, but the explanations that stand out to me are these two: I am either insane with arrogance, or this country is crowded with grossly misinformed people who aren't thinking clearly. When you're hopelessly out of step with the vast majority of your society, it's much more likely that you're the one who's crazy and they're not (we can get into a discussion about "truth as intersubjective convergence on data" later if you want). This is why I am an inept political analyst. Now, don't listen to me!








2 comments:

Anonymous said...

For the majority of my adult life, I have considered myself a conservative.

Now, I’m having doubts. Not because of any change in belief, but rather because of the reactions I get from others who call themselves "conservative."

I’ve considered myself a conservative because I believe:

1. God exists.
2. His Word is the Bible.
3. Mankind’s rights come from God, not from government.
4. Abortion for convenience is wrong.
5. There are standards of morality and decency people should observe in their day-to-day living
6. There is a place for expressions of faith in the public discourse. Separation of church and state does not mean exclusion.
7. Everyone should work to provide for themselves and their families. If they’ve made enough money that they can retire early, good for them. It’s none of my business.
8. Government is necessary, because people are evil and will try to cheat their fellow man unless the rule of law exists. Government is made up of people, so its spending and legislating should be watched as well.
9. Our military programs should always be strong, to deter others from attacking us
10. It is not the role of the Judiciary to attempt to change the culture by interpreting law in ways that promote the agendas of a few
11. We must take steps to lessen our dependence on foreign oil.
12. Programs must exist to help people who cannot help themselves. One of the main focuses of these programs should be to empower their clients to help themselves as much as possible.
13. People’s private lives are just that – private. The press has equal responsibility to practice discretion and caution as it does to investigate and uncover wrongdoing.
14. People do have the right to keep and bear arms to protect themselves.

With that list of 14, you might assume I’m a right-wing nutjob. But, the truth is that lately I find myself very much at-odds with others who call themselves “conservative.”

Why am I at odds? I’ve turned this around in my head a LOT, and have come to the following conclusion:

Many who see themselves as Conservative think:

a. Since they voted for the President, it is somehow “un-conservative” to speak against him or his policies.
b. Anyone disagreeing with the President is somehow weakening the country
c. Unless we all agree with every detail of every plan, we’re somehow divided.
d. There is only one way to exercise conservative thought, and that is by falling in line with the Republicans.

I’ve had conversations when, as soon as I’d pointed out a problem with one of the current administration’s policies, I was immediately asked if I’d “rather Al Gore were in office.” When I replied that indeed, NO, I’m very glad Al Gore wasn’t elected in 2000, the other party acted as if the conversation was over – no need to continue. When I pressed the point further, I could tell the other person was getting uncomfortable.

Why – WHY is it considered wrong to question? This is America – you can get mad at the guy, even if you voted for him, when he screws up! If you truly like the guy, you want him to do the right things, not the wrong things.

Then there’s the modern conservative idea that “if you’re a conservative, you have to really be afraid of electing the other guy.” This idea drove me nuts during the 2004 election. John Kerry did not deserve the dirty tricks pulled by Swift Boat Veterans For Truth. The man served, fought the enemy, was decorated, came home. Then he did what he thought best as a naïve twenty-something year-old to change the policies on this side of the ocean to end a war the politicians messed up.

Why was it considered “un-conservative” to admire the man’s military service? Why was he branded a flip-flopper when he brought up the idea of re-examining our strategy in Iraq, all the while supporting our troops there? None of this made sense to me.

And yet, my beliefs are the same. Many liberals looking at that list of 14 would brand me conservative. But conservatives I talk with treat me as though I am a liberal.

I’m not sure WHAT I am anymore. And like you said, when you find few folks you can agree with, maybe the problem is the man in the mirror.

Because the other answer is just too scary.

- Physician

gabeuscorpus said...

Doc -
you probably think I've abandoned this post, but I've been carrying your remarks around in my head like a rock in my pocket - I keep coming back to it, inspecting it again, reflecting on it some more. But I can't ruminate forever, and eventually one has to kick the idea out of the nest, and see if it flies.

I don't think that these 14 points make you a "right wing nut job".
I laughed when I read your statement about the way that you're seen by "conservatives" and "liberals". I think of myself as being too far left for the democratic party, but many liberals see me as too conservative. I like to joke that I lean to the right... of Fidel Castro. It's a weird situation, though.

You and I can probablt agree that this country is big enough for both of us, and can agree on a great many things, and can debate the finer points of how we would balance compromises between competing goods (i.e., solve our moral dilemmas). We'd probably come to loggerheads on several issues, because we have fundamental differences in our views and values (I'm not a theist, and am skeptical of claims about divine knowledge). But I think that you and I may be among the relatively sane ones nonetheless, because we would talk about it honestly.

Because it appears that we have a common concern for truth, and virtue. I don't often hear someone identifiable as "conservative" who's willing to break ranks and question the "authority" of their party, no matter how ludicrous the claim. In the same way, I don't hear a lot of other people on the left choke when they hear the bile in Amy Goodman's voice, or feel angry when "leftist" commentators use the same dirty tricks as the "bad guys" to misrepresent the truth, and they should.

Maybe this is the problem, Doc, that people have lost their perspective: that CNN and the newspaper, Pacifica and the Bush Administration have taught us by example that the truth isn't what's important, what's important is that you charge forward with a tankful of ideology, deny your weaknesses and foibles, and discredit your opponents. What matters is rooting for the winning team. The well has been poisoned with partisanship, and now every issue that faces the country is more about power than it is about problem solving.

I don't know if we'd agree, but the current Social Security fiasco seems to be a great example. Whether or not private accounts are a good idea (and I think they're necessary) . If there's a funding crisis, will diverting funds
OUT of the system fix it? Not on your life. This is more about starving the beast than it is about fixing Social Security. Will the administration admit it? Never. But if it WORKS to get younger workers excited about the government helping them save for retirement, it's a psychological political victory that could cement Republical loyalty for many years. If it all falls apart, well, just remember that George tried to get you your money out of Socail Security. If the Bush administration fails to fix it and a crisis DOES happen, they'll be able to complain that their plan - which wouldn't fix anything - sunk.

So if I'm nuts, so be it. I want to do what's right. I want to know the truth. And I'd be willing to work with other people -- people I can disagree with -- but other people who want those same things.